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The RAPPORT

January 2026

U.S. Edition

2026 and beyond

It's the business model ... and the moment to change it

It’s time to build a regulatory system for the 21st century  

 

A note from Jay Griffin, U.S. Program Executive Chair


State utility regulators aren’t new to pressure. The stakes have always been the same: keep the lights on for millions of people and do it affordably. But the past few years have stress tested not only utility regulators, but the entire regulatory system itself. Affordability pressures have intensified significantly; today, roughly a quarter of low-income households have an energy burden above 15%, far above what is considered severe. At the same time, accelerating load growth, from data centers to electrification, compresses decision timelines and often forces choices with incomplete information.

2026 will only magnify those challenges, and the decisions regulators make will test existing tools and assumptions. Our regulatory frameworks were not designed for the speed, scale and complexity of today, and that mismatch creates an opportunity to fundamentally rethink how regulation works, not just how we respond to individual problems. 

I was reminded of this recently while reflecting on a workshop held during my time as a commissioner. In 2018, we invited utility investors to share their perspectives on performance-based regulation. It clearly made an impact, because I’m still thinking about the presentation from Moody’s eight years later. They argued that traditional cost-of-service regulation was leading utilities down the wrong path. By rewarding capital investment over outcomes, the model encourages utilities to “spend money to make money,” while discouraging non-capital solutions like demand management and distributed energy resources. This model creates risk for customers and investors alike. Hearing the critique from a credit rating agency reinforced my view that utility business model reform isn’t just an abstract policy debate, it’s a practical necessity.


Although there are real limits to how much structural change a commission can tackle in a single year or upcoming decision, today’s choices about infrastructure investments, interconnection policies, and resource adequacy rules provide opportunities to move toward real reform while also addressing immediate pain points. How state commissions, system operators, FERC and other policymakers respond to rapid load growth will shape not only how to serve new demand reliably and affordably, but also whether regulatory frameworks evolve to contain costs and prioritize customer needs. 


Public discourse and debate on utility rates and load growth have intensified as power bills skyrocket and data centers boom; decision-makers are feeling the heat to deliver solutions. The Regulatory Assistance Project is here to help commissioners navigate those immediate pain points while laying the groundwork for structural reform. We have a deep bench of experts with decades of experience, and we want to make decision-makers feel confident that they’re making durable, defensible decisions based on the best possible information. 


In case you missed the announcement, RAP formed our first Council of Commissioners at the end of 2025, and we’re busy working on our first year’s agenda. The Council brings together former regulators who have faced similar pressures, sat at the same tables, and made hard decisions under scrutiny. The Council will offer peer mentorship, education and thought leadership. It will involve candid dialogue, honest disagreement, and a shared goal of ensuring that state regulators aren’t facing challenges alone. 


RAP is committed to supporting regulators through the pressures that this year will bring, and we’re ready to turn challenges into opportunities. This can be the moment when we lay the groundwork for a more affordable, reliable and equitable energy future, but we have to be willing to address the structural issues at the heart of the challenge.

   
   

EVENT

RAP staff and Council of Commissioners head to NARUC Winter Policy Summit

We’re looking forward to connecting with peers at the annual winter meeting of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners from February 8-11. RAP staff attending include: Jay Griffin, U.S. Program Executive Chair; Sarah Freeman, Principal; Carl Linvill, Principal; Ronny Sandoval, Managing Principal; Mark LeBel, Principal, U.S. Research & Strategy; Daniel Livingston, Strategy Associate; and Emily Bosch, U.S. Strategic Communications Lead. Please reach out to staff members to meet up!


Be sure to check out the NARUC workshop “How Electric Vehicles Can Support Load Growth and Affordability” on Sunday, February 8, from 2 to 5 p.m., where RAP experts plan to join the discussion on proactive planning.


Prior to the conference, the Council of Commissioners will hold its first in-person gathering to set its agenda for tackling today’s most pressing energy challenges. RAP looks forward to supporting the Council’s leadership on issues like load growth and affordability with new expert-backed research.  

   
   

announcement

RAP welcomes new staff

We’re excited for Emily Bosch to join as the new Strategic Communications Lead for the U.S. Program and Jennifer Chen to join as Principal, U.S. and Global Expertise Centre.

   
   

QUOTABLE RAP

   
   

On data center load growth: “We know it’s not all real. The question is how much is real,” said Michael Hogan, a senior advisor at the Regulatory Assistance Project, which advises governments and regulators on energy policy. … “Whatever [new] build we do end up seeing in Texas, the people who ended up investing in the excess capacity are the ones that are going to suffer.” 
Source:  Red-hot Texas is getting so many data center requests that experts see a bubbleCNBC


“Moving to a contested-case IRP process … I'm cautiously optimistic that it's going to be better than the status quo. Because it creates a requirement that the commission does approve, reject, or approve with modification a [public utility's] integrated resource plan. That puts more weight on the final result. ... The final product of that multi-month process matters,” said Alex Antal, a Principal at RAP, discussing the practice that some states have adopted to increase the rigor of the IRP process and ensure that the utility implements the resulting plan.
Source: The Future of the IRP in Missouri with RAP’s Alex AntalRenew Gurus podcast


“Regulated interregional transmission is challenging because balkanized planning and disagreements between neighboring authorities on how costs are shared by their respective captive ratepayers can present issues,” said Regulatory Assistance Project Principal Jennifer Chen. “On the other hand, purely merchant financing faces challenges with upfront investment uncertainty.”
Cap-and-floor, a hybrid financing mechanism “combines the investment certainty from regulated rates and merchant exposure that optimizes asset use.” In this way, cap-and-floor “projects can create more value than in a purely regulated setting. That value can be shared with customers,” Chen said. “The costs of the projects are allocated through the markets to those procuring transmission services instead of defaulting to captive ratepayers.” 
Source: Could the U.K.’s Cap-and-Floor Model Unlock Interregional Tx in the U.S.? RTO Insider

   

  

        


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